Topline — 20260213FD CATI CALL BACK

140 respondents · Unweighted · 49 questions · generated 2026-09-21 12:17 UTC

Provisional: live fieldwork, 140 interviews so far. Percentages are of each question's valid base (missing/not-asked excluded). Right-hand grey figure = count.

Quota fill from response data

Computed directly from the answers, so it stays correct even when a survey's platform quota counter is broken. ⚠ = platform counter disagrees.

ward

Burnage

26/80 ⚠

Gorton and Abbey Hey

23/91 ⚠

Levenshulme

27/85 ⚠

Longsight

18/90 ⚠

Audenshaw

0/54

Denton North East

15/49 ⚠

Denton South

18/51 ⚠

Denton West

13/50 ⚠

ethnicity_quota

White

106/9999 ⚠

Mixed/multiple ethnic groups

4/9999 ⚠

Asian

20/9999 ⚠

Black/African/Caribbean

8/9999 ⚠

[DO NOT PROMPT] Refused

1/9999 ⚠

ethnicity_white_quota

English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish or British

0/9999

Irish

0/9999

Gypsy or Irish Traveller

0/9999

Roma

0/9999

Other White background

0/9999

[DO NOT PROMPT] Refused

0/9999

agecat

18-24

10/84

25-34

9/105

35-44

25/106

45-54

38/86

55-64

23/77

65-74

35/92

agecat_large

18-34

19/9999

35-54

63/9999

55+

58/9999

sex_quota

Male

71/281

Female

69/269

ward Can I confirm that you live in the [NAME] ward?If they don't know, ask for postcode, so the ward can be looked up here:

Base: 140

Levenshulme

19.3%

Burnage

18.6%

Gorton and Abbey Hey

16.4%

Longsight

12.9%

Denton South

12.9%

Denton North East

10.7%

Denton West

9.3%

postcode_1 postcode - What is your full postcode? Enter postcode

Base: 34

Enter postcode

100.0%

postcode_2 postcode - What is your full postcode? [DO NOT PROMPT] Refused

Base: 106

[DO NOT PROMPT] Refused

100.0%

106

registered Are you registered to vote in a General Election?

Base: 140

Yes

98.6%

138

Don't know

1.4%

ltv As you may or may not be aware, there is a by-election taking place in Gorton and Denton on Thursday, 26 February to elect a new MP. How likely are you to vote in this election?

Base: 140

10 - Certain to vote

81.4%

114

0 - Certain not to vote

3.6%

2.9%

1.4%

0.7%

evi In the Gorton and Denton by-election on 26 February, who are you most likely to vote for?

Base: 135

Reform UK - Matt Goodwin [PROMPT]

24.4%

Don't know [DO NOT PROMPT]

23.7%

Labour - Angeliki Stogia [PROMPT]

21.5%

Green Party - Hannah Spencer [PROMPT]

20.7%

Prefer not to say [DO NOT PROMPT]

6.7%

Liberal Democrats - Jackie Pearcey [PROMPT]

0.7%

Conservative - Charlotte Cadden [PROMPT]

0.7%

Advance UK - Nick Buckley [PROMPT]

0.7%

I will not vote [DO NOT PROMPT]

0.7%

evi_dk Which way do you think you would be most likely to vote?

Base: 32

I would not vote [DO NOT PROMPT]

31.2%

Labour (Angeliki Stogia)

25.0%

Reform UK (Matt Goodwin)

15.6%

Liberal Democrats (Jackie Pearcey)

9.4%

Other party or independent

9.4%

Green Party (Hannah Spencer)

6.2%

Conservatives (Charlotte Cadden)

3.1%

reasons_v2_1 reasons_v2 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Keeping Reform UK out

Base: 30

Keeping Reform UK out

100.0%

reasons_v2_2 reasons_v2 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Keeping Labour out

Base: 30

Keeping Labour out

100.0%

reasons_v2_3 reasons_v2 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Keeping the Green Party out

Base: 2

Keeping the Green Party out

100.0%

reasons_v2_4 reasons_v2 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Getting rid of Keir Starmer as Prime Minister

Base: 20

Getting rid of Keir Starmer as Prime Minister

100.0%

reasons_v2_6 reasons_v2 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Who would be the best at sorting out local issues in Gorton and Denton

Base: 11

Who would be the best at sorting out local issues in Gorton and Denton

100.0%

reasons_v2_7 reasons_v2 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Who would be best to represent Gorton and Denton on national issues

Base: 13

Who would be best to represent Gorton and Denton on national issues

100.0%

reasons_v2_8 reasons_v2 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Who would be best on the cost of living

Base: 6

Who would be best on the cost of living

100.0%

reasons_v2_9 reasons_v2 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Who would be best on the NHS

Base: 1

Who would be best on the NHS

100.0%

reasons_v2_10 reasons_v2 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Who would be best on immigration

Base: 13

Who would be best on immigration

100.0%

reasons_v2_11 reasons_v2 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? I like the leader of the party I am voting for and want them to be Prime Minister

Base: 9

I like the leader of the party I am voting for and want them to be Prime Minister

100.0%

reasons_v2_12 reasons_v2 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? I like the national policies of the party I am voting for

Base: 11

I like the national policies of the party I am voting for

100.0%

reasons_v2_13 reasons_v2 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? I always tend to vote for this party

Base: 10

I always tend to vote for this party

100.0%

reasons_v2_14 reasons_v2 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Other (please specify)

Base: 15

Other (please specify)

100.0%

reasons_v2_15 reasons_v2 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? None of these

Base: 12

None of these

100.0%

lab_ref Imagine that in the Gorton and Denton by-election on 26 February, only Labour or Reform UK were likely to win. In this situation, who would you vote for?

Base: 135

Labour (Angeliki Stogia)

43.0%

Reform UK (Matt Goodwin)

32.6%

I would not vote [DO NOT PROMPT]

18.5%

Green Party (Hannah Spencer)

3.7%

Other party or independent [DO NOT PROMPT]

1.5%

Liberal Democrats (Jackie Pearcey)

0.7%

green_ref Imagine that in the Gorton and Denton by-election on 26 February, only the Green Party or Reform UK were likely to win. In this situation, who would you vote for?

Base: 135

Green Party (Hannah Spencer)

46.7%

Reform UK (Matt Goodwin)

31.9%

I would not vote [DO NOT PROMPT]

12.6%

Labour (Angeliki Stogia)

4.4%

Other party or independent [DO NOT PROMPT]

3.7%

Liberal Democrats (Jackie Pearcey)

0.7%

ltv_gevi If there was a General Election tomorrow, how likely would you be to vote in it?

Base: 140

10 - Certain to vote

80.7%

113

0 - Certain not to vote

4.3%

2.9%

2.1%

1.4%

gevi If there was a General Election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

Base: 134

Labour

26.9%

Reform UK

26.9%

Green Party

18.7%

Don't know [DO NOT PROMPT]

17.2%

Prefer not to say [DO NOT PROMPT]

6.0%

Liberal Democrats

3.0%

Conservatives

1.5%

gevi_dk Which way do you think you would be most likely to vote?

Base: 23

Still don’t know [DO NOT PROMPT]

82.6%

Labour

8.7%

Liberal Democrats

4.3%

Green Party

4.3%

leaders_issues_1 leaders_issues - Which of the following leaders do you think would be best at handling each of the following issues? The Economy

Base: 140

None of these [DO NOT PROMPT]

36.4%

Nigel Farage [PROMPT]

22.1%

Keir Starmer [PROMPT]

20.7%

Zack Polanski [PROMPT]

11.4%

Kemi Badenoch [PROMPT]

7.9%

Ed Davey [PROMPT]

1.4%

leaders_issues_2 leaders_issues - Which of the following leaders do you think would be best at handling each of the following issues? Defence

Base: 140

None of these [DO NOT PROMPT]

35.7%

Keir Starmer [PROMPT]

25.7%

Nigel Farage [PROMPT]

21.4%

Zack Polanski [PROMPT]

9.3%

Kemi Badenoch [PROMPT]

5.7%

Ed Davey [PROMPT]

2.1%

leaders_issues_3 leaders_issues - Which of the following leaders do you think would be best at handling each of the following issues? The Cost of Living

Base: 140

None of these [DO NOT PROMPT]

34.3%

Nigel Farage [PROMPT]

23.6%

Keir Starmer [PROMPT]

20.7%

Zack Polanski [PROMPT]

12.9%

Kemi Badenoch [PROMPT]

5.0%

Ed Davey [PROMPT]

3.6%

leaders_issues_4 leaders_issues - Which of the following leaders do you think would be best at handling each of the following issues? Taxes

Base: 140

None of these [DO NOT PROMPT]

36.4%

Keir Starmer [PROMPT]

20.7%

Nigel Farage [PROMPT]

20.0%

Zack Polanski [PROMPT]

12.9%

Kemi Badenoch [PROMPT]

6.4%

Ed Davey [PROMPT]

3.6%

leaders_issues_5 leaders_issues - Which of the following leaders do you think would be best at handling each of the following issues? Healthcare

Base: 140

None of these [DO NOT PROMPT]

40.0%

Keir Starmer [PROMPT]

22.1%

Nigel Farage [PROMPT]

19.3%

Zack Polanski [PROMPT]

12.1%

Ed Davey [PROMPT]

3.6%

Kemi Badenoch [PROMPT]

2.9%

leaders_issues_6 leaders_issues - Which of the following leaders do you think would be best at handling each of the following issues? Immigration

Base: 140

None of these [DO NOT PROMPT]

35.0%

Nigel Farage [PROMPT]

30.0%

Keir Starmer [PROMPT]

17.9%

Zack Polanski [PROMPT]

12.1%

Ed Davey [PROMPT]

2.9%

Kemi Badenoch [PROMPT]

2.1%

most_likely Regardless of the result you would like to see, who do you expect is most likely to win the by-election?

Base: 135

Reform UK (Matt Goodwin) [PROMPT]

39.3%

Don't know [DO NOT PROMPT]

23.7%

Labour (Angeliki Stogia) [PROMPT]

23.0%

Green Party (Hannah Spencer) [PROMPT]

13.3%

Conservatives (Charlotte Cadden) [PROMPT]

0.7%

religion What is your religion?

Base: 140

Christian (including Church of England, Catholic, Protestant, and all other Christian denomination)

46.4%

No religion

32.9%

Muslim

17.1%

Any other religion

3.6%

ethnicity INPUT FROM DATA SHEET

Base: 140

White

75.7%

106

Asian

14.3%

Black/African/Caribbean

5.7%

Mixed/multiple ethnic groups

2.9%

Other ethnic group (please specify):

0.7%

[DO NOT PROMPT] Refused

0.7%

ethnicity_quota_A_1 ethnicity_quota_A - ethnicity.a=White

Base: 106

ethnicity.a=White

100.0%

106

ethnicity_quota_A_2 ethnicity_quota_A - ethnicity.a=Mixed/multiple ethnic groups

Base: 4

ethnicity.a=Mixed/multiple ethnic groups

100.0%

ethnicity_quota_A_3 ethnicity_quota_A - ethnicity.a=Asian

Base: 20

ethnicity.a=Asian

100.0%

ethnicity_quota_A_4 ethnicity_quota_A - ethnicity.a=Black/African/Caribbean

Base: 8

ethnicity.a=Black/African/Caribbean

100.0%

ethnicity_quota_A_5 ethnicity_quota_A - ethnicity.a=Other ethnic group (please specify):

Base: 1

ethnicity.a=Other ethnic group (please specify):

100.0%

ethnicity_quota_A_6 ethnicity_quota_A - ethnicity.a=[DO NOT PROMPT] Refused

Base: 1

ethnicity.a=[DO NOT PROMPT] Refused

100.0%

ge24_gortonanddenton INPUT FROM DATA SHEET Thinking back to the last UK General Election, held in July 2024, which party or candidate did you vote for, or did you not vote?

Base: 140

Labour - Andrew Gwynne

45.0%

Refused

17.1%

Did not vote

13.6%

Reform - Lee Moffitt

8.6%

Conservative - Ruth Welsh

7.9%

Can't remember

3.6%

Green - Amanda Gardner

2.9%

Liberal Democrats - John Reid

1.4%

agecat_refused If respondents have refused to give exact age, please take from the dialler.

Base: 7

55-64

42.9%

45-54

28.6%

35-44

14.3%

65-74

14.3%

sex Please record sex. INPUT FROM DATA SHEET

Base: 140

Female

50.7%

Male

49.3%

sex_quota_A_1 sex_quota_A - sex.a=Male

Base: 71

sex.a=Male

100.0%

sex_quota_A_2 sex_quota_A - sex.a=Female

Base: 69

sex.a=Female

100.0%

sex_quota_B_1 sex_quota_B - sex.a=Male

Base: 71

sex.a=Male

100.0%

sex_quota_B_2 sex_quota_B - sex.a=Female

Base: 69

sex.a=Female

100.0%

education INPUT FROM DATA SHEET What is your highest level of educational qualifications?

Base: 140

Degree, HNC, HND, RSA Higher Diploma, Professional qualifications (e.g. teaching, nursing, accountancy)

32.1%

[DO NOT PROMPT] Refused

15.7%

1-4 O Levels/CSE/GCSEs (any grades), Entry Level / Foundation / Level 1 NVQ qualification

15.0%

5+ O Level Passes/CSEs (Grade 1)/GCSEs (Grades A*-C), 1 A Level/2-3 AS Levels/

12.9%

2+ A Levels, 4+ AS Levels, Level 3 NVQ qualification, ONC, OND

12.9%

No Qualifications

8.6%

Other (vocational/Work-related Qualifications)

2.1%

Apprenticeship / Level 2 NVQ qualification

0.7%