survation. ← Fieldwork

Topline — 20260213FD CATI V2

332 respondents · Unweighted · 49 questions · generated 2026-09-21 13:46 UTC
Provisional: live fieldwork, 332 interviews so far. Percentages are of each question's valid base (missing/not-asked excluded). Right-hand grey figure = count.

Quota fill from response data

Computed directly from the answers, so it stays correct even when a survey's platform quota counter is broken. ⚠ = platform counter disagrees.
ward
Burnage
50/80 ⚠
Gorton and Abbey Hey
63/91 ⚠
Levenshulme
51/85 ⚠
Longsight
45/90 ⚠
Audenshaw
3/54 ⚠
Denton North East
30/49 ⚠
Denton South
49/51 ⚠
Denton West
41/50 ⚠
agecat
18-24
15/84
25-34
30/105
35-44
60/106
45-54
58/86
55-64
78/77 ⚠
65-74
87/92
agecat_large
18-34
49/9999
35-54
118/9999
55+
165/9999
sex_quota
Male
168/281 ⚠
Female
164/269 ⚠
ethnicity_quota
White
200/9999 ⚠
Mixed/multiple ethnic groups
10/9999 ⚠
Asian
58/9999 ⚠
Black/African/Caribbean
30/9999 ⚠
[DO NOT PROMPT] Refused
25/9999 ⚠
ethnicity_white_quota
English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish or British
0/9999
Irish
0/9999
Gypsy or Irish Traveller
0/9999
Roma
0/9999
Other White background
0/9999
[DO NOT PROMPT] Refused
0/9999

ward Can I confirm that you live in the [NAME] ward?If they don't know, ask for postcode, so the ward can be looked up here:

Base: 332
Gorton and Abbey Hey
19.0%
63
Levenshulme
15.4%
51
Burnage
15.1%
50
Denton South
14.8%
49
Longsight
13.6%
45
Denton West
12.3%
41
Denton North East
9.0%
30
Audenshaw
0.9%
3

postcode_1 postcode - What is your full postcode? Enter postcode

Base: 308
Enter postcode
100.0%
308

postcode_2 postcode - What is your full postcode? [DO NOT PROMPT] Refused

Base: 24
[DO NOT PROMPT] Refused
100.0%
24

ge24_gortonanddenton Thinking back to the last UK General Election, held in July 2024, which party or candidate did you vote for, or did you not vote?

Base: 332
Labour - Andrew Gwynne
35.5%
118
Did not vote
26.2%
87
Refused
9.0%
30
Conservative - Ruth Welsh
8.4%
28
Reform - Lee Moffitt
7.8%
26
Can't remember
6.9%
23
Green - Amanda Gardner
3.9%
13
Liberal Democrats - John Reid
2.1%
7

registered Are you registered to vote in a General Election?

Base: 332
Yes
92.5%
307
No
4.8%
16
Don't know
2.7%
9

ltv As you may or may not be aware, there is a by-election taking place in Gorton and Denton on Thursday, 26 February to elect a new MP. How likely are you to vote in this election?

Base: 332
10 - Certain to vote
65.1%
216
0 - Certain not to vote
15.4%
51
5
5.7%
19
8
4.8%
16
9
2.4%
8
6
2.1%
7
7
2.1%
7
1
0.9%
3
2
0.9%
3
4
0.6%
2

evi In the Gorton and Denton by-election on 26 February, who are you most likely to vote for?

Base: 281
Reform UK - Matt Goodwin [PROMPT]
28.5%
80
Green Party - Hannah Spencer [PROMPT]
18.1%
51
Labour - Angeliki Stogia [PROMPT]
18.1%
51
Don't know [DO NOT PROMPT]
18.1%
51
Prefer not to say [DO NOT PROMPT]
12.1%
34
Liberal Democrats - Jackie Pearcey [PROMPT]
2.1%
6
Conservative - Charlotte Cadden [PROMPT]
1.4%
4
Advance UK - Nick Buckley [PROMPT]
0.7%
2
I will not vote [DO NOT PROMPT]
0.7%
2

evi_dk Which way do you think you would be most likely to vote?

Base: 51
I would not vote [DO NOT PROMPT]
35.3%
18
Other party or independent
25.5%
13
Labour (Angeliki Stogia)
19.6%
10
Green Party (Hannah Spencer)
9.8%
5
Reform UK (Matt Goodwin)
5.9%
3
Conservatives (Charlotte Cadden)
2.0%
1
Liberal Democrats (Jackie Pearcey)
2.0%
1

reasons_v2_1 reasons_v2 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Keeping Reform UK out

Base: 47
Keeping Reform UK out
100.0%
47

reasons_v2_2 reasons_v2 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Keeping Labour out

Base: 39
Keeping Labour out
100.0%
39

reasons_v2_3 reasons_v2 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Keeping the Green Party out

Base: 6
Keeping the Green Party out
100.0%
6

reasons_v2_4 reasons_v2 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Getting rid of Keir Starmer as Prime Minister

Base: 43
Getting rid of Keir Starmer as Prime Minister
100.0%
43

reasons_v2_5 reasons_v2 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Sending a message about Gaza

Base: 13
Sending a message about Gaza
100.0%
13

reasons_v2_6 reasons_v2 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Who would be the best at sorting out local issues in Gorton and Denton

Base: 32
Who would be the best at sorting out local issues in Gorton and Denton
100.0%
32

reasons_v2_7 reasons_v2 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Who would be best to represent Gorton and Denton on national issues

Base: 26
Who would be best to represent Gorton and Denton on national issues
100.0%
26

reasons_v2_8 reasons_v2 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Who would be best on the cost of living

Base: 55
Who would be best on the cost of living
100.0%
55

reasons_v2_9 reasons_v2 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Who would be best on the NHS

Base: 61
Who would be best on the NHS
100.0%
61

reasons_v2_10 reasons_v2 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Who would be best on immigration

Base: 61
Who would be best on immigration
100.0%
61

reasons_v2_11 reasons_v2 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? I like the leader of the party I am voting for and want them to be Prime Minister

Base: 19
I like the leader of the party I am voting for and want them to be Prime Minister
100.0%
19

reasons_v2_12 reasons_v2 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? I like the national policies of the party I am voting for

Base: 40
I like the national policies of the party I am voting for
100.0%
40

reasons_v2_13 reasons_v2 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? I always tend to vote for this party

Base: 22
I always tend to vote for this party
100.0%
22

reasons_v2_14 reasons_v2 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Other (please specify)

Base: 68
Other (please specify)
100.0%
68

reasons_v2_15 reasons_v2 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? None of these

Base: 9
None of these
100.0%
9

lab_ref Imagine that in the Gorton and Denton by-election on 26 February, only Labour or Reform UK were likely to win. In this situation, who would you vote for?

Base: 281
Labour (Angeliki Stogia)
38.4%
108
Reform UK (Matt Goodwin)
34.9%
98
I would not vote [DO NOT PROMPT]
15.7%
44
Other party or independent [DO NOT PROMPT]
5.3%
15
Green Party (Hannah Spencer)
4.6%
13
Liberal Democrats (Jackie Pearcey)
0.7%
2
Conservatives (Charlotte Cadden)
0.4%
1

green_ref Imagine that in the Gorton and Denton by-election on 26 February, only the Green Party or Reform UK were likely to win. In this situation, who would you vote for?

Base: 281
Green Party (Hannah Spencer)
37.4%
105
Reform UK (Matt Goodwin)
34.5%
97
I would not vote [DO NOT PROMPT]
17.8%
50
Other party or independent [DO NOT PROMPT]
5.0%
14
Labour (Angeliki Stogia)
3.9%
11
Liberal Democrats (Jackie Pearcey)
1.1%
3
Conservatives (Charlotte Cadden)
0.4%
1

ltv_gevi If there was a General Election tomorrow, how likely would you be to vote in it?

Base: 332
10 - Certain to vote
70.5%
234
0 - Certain not to vote
13.9%
46
8
4.8%
16
5
3.9%
13
6
3.0%
10
9
1.8%
6
7
1.2%
4
3
0.6%
2
1
0.3%
1

gevi If there was a General Election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

Base: 286
Reform UK
30.8%
88
Labour
20.6%
59
Don't know [DO NOT PROMPT]
18.2%
52
Green Party
15.0%
43
Prefer not to say [DO NOT PROMPT]
10.8%
31
Conservatives
2.1%
6
Liberal Democrats
1.4%
4
Other
1.0%
3

gevi_dk Which way do you think you would be most likely to vote?

Base: 52
Still don’t know [DO NOT PROMPT]
73.1%
38
Labour
9.6%
5
Reform UK
7.7%
4
Green Party
3.8%
2
Conservatives
1.9%
1
Liberal Democrats
1.9%
1
Other [DO NOT PROMPT]
1.9%
1

leaders_issues_1 leaders_issues - Which of the following leaders do you think would be best at handling each of the following issues? The Economy

Base: 332
None of these [DO NOT PROMPT]
41.9%
139
Nigel Farage [PROMPT]
22.6%
75
Keir Starmer [PROMPT]
15.1%
50
Zack Polanski [PROMPT]
9.3%
31
Kemi Badenoch [PROMPT]
8.1%
27
Ed Davey [PROMPT]
3.0%
10

leaders_issues_2 leaders_issues - Which of the following leaders do you think would be best at handling each of the following issues? Defence

Base: 332
None of these [DO NOT PROMPT]
44.6%
148
Nigel Farage [PROMPT]
21.4%
71
Keir Starmer [PROMPT]
16.9%
56
Zack Polanski [PROMPT]
9.3%
31
Kemi Badenoch [PROMPT]
6.0%
20
Ed Davey [PROMPT]
1.8%
6

leaders_issues_3 leaders_issues - Which of the following leaders do you think would be best at handling each of the following issues? The Cost of Living

Base: 332
None of these [DO NOT PROMPT]
44.0%
146
Nigel Farage [PROMPT]
22.3%
74
Keir Starmer [PROMPT]
13.9%
46
Zack Polanski [PROMPT]
12.0%
40
Kemi Badenoch [PROMPT]
5.1%
17
Ed Davey [PROMPT]
2.7%
9

leaders_issues_4 leaders_issues - Which of the following leaders do you think would be best at handling each of the following issues? Taxes

Base: 332
None of these [DO NOT PROMPT]
46.1%
153
Nigel Farage [PROMPT]
20.8%
69
Keir Starmer [PROMPT]
13.9%
46
Zack Polanski [PROMPT]
10.5%
35
Kemi Badenoch [PROMPT]
6.3%
21
Ed Davey [PROMPT]
2.4%
8

leaders_issues_5 leaders_issues - Which of the following leaders do you think would be best at handling each of the following issues? Healthcare

Base: 332
None of these [DO NOT PROMPT]
40.7%
135
Nigel Farage [PROMPT]
22.0%
73
Keir Starmer [PROMPT]
17.5%
58
Zack Polanski [PROMPT]
12.0%
40
Kemi Badenoch [PROMPT]
4.5%
15
Ed Davey [PROMPT]
3.3%
11

leaders_issues_6 leaders_issues - Which of the following leaders do you think would be best at handling each of the following issues? Immigration

Base: 332
None of these [DO NOT PROMPT]
39.5%
131
Nigel Farage [PROMPT]
32.5%
108
Keir Starmer [PROMPT]
11.7%
39
Zack Polanski [PROMPT]
9.3%
31
Kemi Badenoch [PROMPT]
4.5%
15
Ed Davey [PROMPT]
2.4%
8

most_likely Regardless of the result you would like to see, who do you expect is most likely to win the by-election?

Base: 281
Reform UK (Matt Goodwin) [PROMPT]
39.1%
110
Labour (Angeliki Stogia) [PROMPT]
22.8%
64
Don't know [DO NOT PROMPT]
22.1%
62
Green Party (Hannah Spencer) [PROMPT]
14.2%
40
Conservatives (Charlotte Cadden) [PROMPT]
0.7%
2
Another party/candidate [PROMPT - AND FOLLOW UP, WHICH PARTY?]
0.7%
2
Liberal Democrats (Jackie Pearcey) [PROMPT]
0.4%
1

agecat_refused If respondents have refused to give exact age, please take from the dialler.

Base: 32
35-44
25.0%
8
45-54
21.9%
7
25-34
12.5%
4
Not available
12.5%
4
55-64
9.4%
3
65-74
9.4%
3
75+
6.2%
2
18-24
3.1%
1

sex Please record sex.

Base: 332
Female
50.6%
168
Male
49.4%
164

sex_quota_A_1 sex_quota_A - sex.a=Male

Base: 168
sex.a=Male
100.0%
168

sex_quota_A_2 sex_quota_A - sex.a=Female

Base: 164
sex.a=Female
100.0%
164

education What is your highest level of educational qualifications?

Base: 332
Degree, HNC, HND, RSA Higher Diploma, Professional qualifications (e.g. teaching, nursing, accountancy)
33.1%
110
No Qualifications
15.1%
50
2+ A Levels, 4+ AS Levels, Level 3 NVQ qualification, ONC, OND
13.3%
44
[DO NOT PROMPT] Refused
12.0%
40
1-4 O Levels/CSE/GCSEs (any grades), Entry Level / Foundation / Level 1 NVQ qualification
9.6%
32
5+ O Level Passes/CSEs (Grade 1)/GCSEs (Grades A*-C), 1 A Level/2-3 AS Levels/
8.1%
27
Other (vocational/Work-related Qualifications)
4.5%
15
Apprenticeship / Level 2 NVQ qualification
4.2%
14

religion What is your religion?

Base: 332
Christian (including Church of England, Catholic, Protestant, and all other Christian denomination)
47.9%
159
No religion
29.5%
98
Muslim
16.0%
53
Any other religion
4.5%
15
Hindu
0.6%
2
Jewish
0.6%
2
Sikh
0.6%
2
Buddhist
0.3%
1

ethnicity How would you describe your ethnic origin?

Base: 332
White
60.2%
200
Asian
17.5%
58
Black/African/Caribbean
9.0%
30
[DO NOT PROMPT] Refused
7.5%
25
Mixed/multiple ethnic groups
3.0%
10
Other ethnic group (please specify):
2.7%
9

ethnicity_quota_A_1 ethnicity_quota_A - ethnicity.a=White

Base: 200
ethnicity.a=White
100.0%
200

ethnicity_quota_A_2 ethnicity_quota_A - ethnicity.a=Mixed/multiple ethnic groups

Base: 10
ethnicity.a=Mixed/multiple ethnic groups
100.0%
10

ethnicity_quota_A_3 ethnicity_quota_A - ethnicity.a=Asian

Base: 58
ethnicity.a=Asian
100.0%
58

ethnicity_quota_A_4 ethnicity_quota_A - ethnicity.a=Black/African/Caribbean

Base: 30
ethnicity.a=Black/African/Caribbean
100.0%
30

ethnicity_quota_A_5 ethnicity_quota_A - ethnicity.a=Other ethnic group (please specify):

Base: 9
ethnicity.a=Other ethnic group (please specify):
100.0%
9

ethnicity_quota_A_6 ethnicity_quota_A - ethnicity.a=[DO NOT PROMPT] Refused

Base: 25
ethnicity.a=[DO NOT PROMPT] Refused
100.0%
25

recruitment Thank you for your time today sir / madam. Survation regularly do polls in the UK to help charities and academics better understand their opinions. Would you be willing to be recontacted 2-3 times a year to participate in similar pollsAs

Base: 332
NO (OK that’s fine, thank you for your time today)
68.4%
227
YES (Would you be willing to be contacted by email?)
31.6%
105