survation. ← Fieldwork

Topline — 2026-05-15MD-IW-1

505 respondents · Unweighted · 29 questions · generated 2026-09-21 13:12 UTC
Provisional: live fieldwork, 505 interviews so far. Percentages are of each question's valid base (missing/not-asked excluded). Right-hand grey figure = count.

Quota fill from response data

Computed directly from the answers, so it stays correct even when a survey's platform quota counter is broken. ⚠ = platform counter disagrees.
ward
Burnage
55/80 ⚠
Gorton and Abbey Hey
79/91 ⚠
Levenshulme
50/85 ⚠
Longsight
1/90 ⚠
Audenshaw
63/54 ⚠
Denton North East
49/49 ⚠
Denton South
6/51 ⚠
Denton West
15/50 ⚠
agecat
18-24
28/84
25-34
46/105
35-44
57/106
45-54
97/86 ⚠
55-64
120/150
65-74
157/150 ⚠
agecat_large
18-34
74/9999
35-54
154/9999
55+
277/9999
sex_quota
Male
238/281 ⚠
Female
267/269 ⚠

ward Can I confirm that you live in the [NAME] ward?[If they don't know, ask for postcode, so the ward can be looked up here]

Base: 505
Ashton-in-Makerfield South
15.6%
79
Winstanley
15.2%
77
Hindley
12.5%
63
Orrell
11.7%
59
Abram
10.9%
55
Worsley Mesnes
10.1%
51
Bryn with Ashton-in-Makerfield North
9.9%
50
Hindley Green
9.7%
49
Leigh West
3.0%
15
Ince
1.2%
6
Golborne and Lowton West
0.2%
1

ltv_ge If there were to be a general election, on a scale of 0 - 10, where 0 is “would not vote” and 10 is “certain to vote”, how likely would you be to vote?

Base: 505
10 - Certain to vote
70.5%
356
0 - Would not vote
8.5%
43
9
5.7%
29
8
4.6%
23
7
3.4%
17
5
3.0%
15
6
2.0%
10
4
1.2%
6
1
0.4%
2
2
0.4%
2
3
0.4%
2

gevi If a general election were taking place tomorrow and candidates from all political parties were standing, which party would you vote for?

Base: 462
Reform UK [PROMPT]
32.0%
148
Labour [PROMPT]
28.6%
132
Undecided
17.1%
79
Refused
8.7%
40
Green [PROMPT]
4.3%
20
Other [PROMPT AND FOLLOW UP, WHICH PARTY]
3.9%
18
Conservative [PROMPT]
3.7%
17
Liberal Democrat [PROMPT]
1.7%
8

ltv There is an upcoming by-election in the Makerfield constituency to be held on 18th June. On a scale of 0 - 10, where 0 is would not vote and 10 is certain to vote, how likely would you be to vote in this by-election?

Base: 505
10 - Certain to vote
72.7%
367
0 - Would not vote
10.9%
55
8
5.3%
27
9
3.4%
17
5
2.6%
13
7
2.2%
11
6
1.4%
7
2
0.8%
4
3
0.4%
2
1
0.2%
1
4
0.2%
1

evi_1 And if the by-election was held tomorrow, for which party would you vote?

Base: 450
Labour [PROMPT]
35.3%
159
Reform UK [PROMPT]
30.9%
139
UNDECIDED [DO NOT PROMPT]
11.8%
53
REFUSED [DO NOT PROMPT]
8.7%
39
Restore Britain [PROMPT]
4.7%
21
Liberal Democrats [PROMPT]
2.7%
12
Green Party [PROMPT]
2.7%
12
Conservative [PROMPT]
2.2%
10
Another party [PROMPT - AND FOLLOW UP, WHICH PARTY?]
1.1%
5

evi And if the by-election was held tomorrow, and the following candidates were standing, for which candidate would you vote?

Base: 450
Labour - Andy Burnham [PROMPT]
38.4%
173
Reform UK - Robert Kenyon [PROMPT]
30.7%
138
UNDECIDED [DO NOT PROMPT]
9.8%
44
REFUSED [DO NOT PROMPT]
8.2%
37
Restore Britain - Rebecca Shepherd [PROMPT]
4.9%
22
Green Party Candidate [PROMPT]
2.7%
12
Liberal Democrat - Jake Austin [PROMPT]
2.4%
11
Conservative - Michael Winstanley [PROMPT]
2.4%
11
Another party [PROMPT - AND FOLLOW UP, WHICH PARTY?]
0.4%
2

evi_undecided Whilst you are undecided, is there a candidate/party that you are leaning towards the most?

Base: 44
UNDECIDED [DO NOT PROMPT]
77.3%
34
Reform UK - Robert Kenyon [PROMPT]
6.8%
3
Conservative - Michael Winstanley [PROMPT]
4.5%
2
REFUSED [DO NOT PROMPT]
4.5%
2
Liberal Democrats - Jake Austin [PROMPT]
2.3%
1
Green Party Candidate [PROMPT]
2.3%
1
Labour - Andy Burnham [PROMPT]
2.3%
1

evi_second_choice And if you had to pick a party or candidate that would be your second choice, which party or candidate would you choose?

Base: 450
REFUSED [DO NOT PROMPT]
21.8%
98
UNDECIDED [DO NOT PROMPT]
19.3%
87
Green Party Candidate [PROMPT]
12.9%
58
Reform UK - Robert Kenyon [PROMPT]
9.3%
42
Conservative - Michael Winstanley [PROMPT]
8.9%
40
Restore Britain - Rebecca Shepherd [PROMPT]
8.9%
40
Labour - Andy Burnham [PROMPT]
8.4%
38
Liberal Democrats - Jake Austin [PROMPT]
6.4%
29
Another party [PROMPT - AND FOLLOW UP, WHICH PARTY?]
4.0%
18

voting_method And when you do vote, do you typically vote in-person at the polling station or by post?

Base: 505
Polling station [PROMPT]
75.0%
379
Postal vote [PROMPT]
21.0%
106
Refuse
3.2%
16
Don’t know
0.8%
4

attention_politics How much attention, if at all, do you pay to politics?

Base: 505
A fair amount [PROMPT]
46.1%
233
A great deal [PROMPT]
31.5%
159
Not very much [PROMPT]
17.8%
90
None at all [PROMPT]
4.6%
23

q1_1 q1 - Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the following? Josh Simons

Base: 505
Don’t know
25.3%
128
Neither favourable nor unfavourable
18.4%
93
Strongly unfavourable
17.2%
87
Somewhat favourable
16.6%
84
Strongly favourable
12.5%
63
Somewhat unfavourable
9.9%
50

q1_2 q1 - Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the following? Andy Burnham

Base: 505
Strongly favourable
28.5%
144
Strongly unfavourable
24.6%
124
Somewhat favourable
17.0%
86
Neither favourable nor unfavourable
12.3%
62
Don’t know
9.7%
49
Somewhat unfavourable
7.9%
40

q1_3 q1 - Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the following? Keir Starmer

Base: 505
Strongly unfavourable
53.9%
272
Somewhat unfavourable
15.0%
76
Neither favourable nor unfavourable
10.7%
54
Somewhat favourable
10.3%
52
Don’t know
6.5%
33
Strongly favourable
3.6%
18

q1_4 q1 - Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the following? Wigan Council

Base: 505
Neither favourable nor unfavourable
24.8%
125
Somewhat favourable
23.4%
118
Strongly unfavourable
20.6%
104
Strongly favourable
11.5%
58
Somewhat unfavourable
10.7%
54
Don’t know
9.1%
46

q1_5 q1 - Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the following? Nigel Farage

Base: 505
Strongly unfavourable
35.2%
178
Strongly favourable
17.8%
90
Neither favourable nor unfavourable
14.3%
72
Somewhat favourable
14.1%
71
Somewhat unfavourable
10.1%
51
Don’t know
8.5%
43

q2 When deciding how to vote, which will you be considering more:

Base: 505
Both equally
46.3%
234
National issues [PROMPT]
29.5%
149
Local issues [PROMPT]
19.0%
96
Don’t know
5.1%
26

q3 Which of the following best describes what you believe to be “at stake” in this by-election?

Base: 504
Getting a good local MP who cares about the area [PROMPT]
31.7%
160
Opening the way for Andy Burnham to become Prime Minister [PROMPT]
21.6%
109
Sending the Labour government a message [PROMPT]
20.2%
102
Don’t know
13.5%
68
Stopping Reform from winning the seat [PROMPT]
12.9%
65

le26 In the recent local elections, which party did you vote for, or did you not vote?

Base: 505
Reform UK [PROMPT]
28.3%
143
Did not vote
22.6%
114
Labour [PROMPT]
21.2%
107
Refused
16.6%
84
Green [PROMPT]
5.3%
27
Conservative [PROMPT]
3.4%
17
Other [PROMPT]
1.4%
7
Liberal Democrat [PROMPT]
1.2%
6

ge24_makerfield Thinking back to the last UK General Election, held in July 2024, which party or candidate did you vote for, or did you not vote?

Base: 505
Labour - Josh Simons [PROMPT]
33.5%
169
Did not vote [PROMPT]
16.0%
81
Reform UK - Robert Kenyon [PROMPT]
15.6%
79
Refused [DO NOT PROMPT]
15.2%
77
Conservative - Simon Finkelstein [PROMPT]
10.5%
53
Can't remember [DO NOT PROMPT]
5.0%
25
Green - Maria Deery [PROMPT]
2.6%
13
Liberal Democrats - John Skipworth [PROMPT]
1.4%
7
English Democrat - Thomas Bryer [PROMPT]
0.2%
1

m24 Thinking back to the 2024 Greater Manchester mayoral election, which party or candidate did you vote for, or did you not vote?

Base: 505
Did not vote
35.6%
180
Labour - Andy Burnham
30.3%
153
Refused
13.1%
66
Can't remember
9.5%
48
Reform UK - Dan Barker
5.7%
29
Conservative - Laura Evans
4.2%
21
Green - Hannah Spencer
1.2%
6
Independent - Nick Buckley
0.2%
1
Liberal Democrats - Jake Austin
0.2%
1

eu16 Thinking back to the EU referendum in 2016, how did you vote in the referendum, or did you not vote?

Base: 505
Leave
36.6%
185
Remain
24.0%
121
Did not vote
18.0%
91
Refused
13.9%
70
Can't remember
7.5%
38

education What is your highest level of educational qualifications?

Base: 505
Degree, HNC, HND, RSA Higher Diploma, Professional qualifications (e.g. teaching, nursing, accountancy)
30.7%
155
[DO NOT PROMPT] Refused
16.8%
85
2+ A Levels, 4+ AS Levels, Level 3 NVQ qualification, ONC, OND
14.1%
71
5+ O Level Passes/CSEs (Grade 1)/GCSEs (Grades A*-C), 1 A Level/2-3 AS Levels/
11.7%
59
No Qualifications
8.5%
43
1-4 O Levels/CSE/GCSEs (any grades), Entry Level / Foundation / Level 1 NVQ qualification
8.1%
41
Other (vocational/Work-related Qualifications)
6.5%
33
Apprenticeship / Level 2 NVQ qualification
3.6%
18

Tenure And which of the following types of housing tenure best describes the accommodation you live in?

Base: 505
Owned outright
46.5%
235
Owned with a mortgage or loan
21.2%
107
Prefer not to say
15.4%
78
Rented from Council (local Authority)
5.7%
29
Rented from private landlord or letting agency
4.2%
21
Rented from housing association, housing co-operative, charitable trust, or registered social landlord
2.0%
10
Rented from a relative or friend of household member
2.0%
10
Living rent free
2.0%
10
Other private rented
0.6%
3
Shared ownership - with a mortgage and paying rent
0.4%
2

emp1 Which of these activities best describes what you are doing at present?

Base: 505
Employed full-time (more than 30 hours plus per week)
34.5%
174
Retired
28.9%
146
Refused
13.7%
69
Self-employed
7.3%
37
Employed in part-time job (30 or fewer hours per week)
6.3%
32
Unable to work due to illness or disability
4.2%
21
Unpaid family carer / homemaker
2.6%
13
Student
1.8%
9
Unemployed and actively seeking employment
0.6%
3
On a government supported training programme (eg, Apprenticeship)
0.2%
1

agecat_refused If respondents have refused to give exact age, please take from the dialler.

Base: 66
45-54
25.8%
17
35-44
19.7%
13
75+
18.2%
12
55-64
16.7%
11
65-74
15.2%
10
25-34
4.5%
3

sex Please record sex.

Base: 505
Male
52.9%
267
Female
47.1%
238

sex_quota_A_1 sex_quota_A - sex.a=Male

Base: 238
sex.a=Male
100.0%
238

sex_quota_A_2 sex_quota_A - sex.a=Female

Base: 267
sex.a=Female
100.0%
267

fg_interest Thank you for your answers today. We are looking to invite people living in the Makerfield area to take part in focus groups or group discussions over the next few weeks. The sessions would be up to 90 minutes and you would be paid for yo

Base: 505
No, not interested.
75.8%
383
Yes, interested.
24.2%
122