survation. ← Fieldwork

Topline — 2026-05-15MD

513 respondents · Unweighted · 21 questions · generated 2026-09-21 10:50 UTC
Provisional: live fieldwork, 513 interviews so far. Percentages are of each question's valid base (missing/not-asked excluded). Right-hand grey figure = count.

Quota fill from response data

Computed directly from the answers, so it stays correct even when a survey's platform quota counter is broken. ⚠ = platform counter disagrees.
ward
Burnage
74/80 ⚠
Gorton and Abbey Hey
75/91 ⚠
Levenshulme
59/85 ⚠
Longsight
1/90 ⚠
Audenshaw
64/54 ⚠
Denton North East
47/49 ⚠
Denton South
2/51 ⚠
Denton West
16/50 ⚠
agecat
18-24
24/84
25-34
32/105
35-44
57/106
45-54
74/86
55-64
91/150 ⚠
65-74
235/150 ⚠
agecat_large
18-34
56/9999
35-54
131/9999
55+
326/9999
sex_quota
Male
258/281 ⚠
Female
255/269 ⚠

ward Can I confirm that you live in the [NAME] ward?[If they don't know, ask for postcode, so the ward can be looked up here]

Base: 513
Ashton-in-Makerfield South
14.6%
75
Abram
14.4%
74
Winstanley
13.8%
71
Hindley
12.5%
64
Bryn with Ashton-in-Makerfield North
11.5%
59
Orrell
10.3%
53
Worsley Mesnes
9.9%
51
Hindley Green
9.2%
47
Leigh West
3.1%
16
Ince
0.4%
2
Golborne and Lowton West
0.2%
1

ltv There is an upcoming by-election in the Makerfield constituency to be held on 18th June. On a scale of 0 - 10, where 0 is would not vote and 10 is certain to vote, how likely would you be to vote in this by-election?

Base: 513
10 - Certain to vote
68.2%
350
0 - Would not vote
7.8%
40
8
6.4%
33
5
6.2%
32
9
2.7%
14
7
2.5%
13
6
2.3%
12
2
1.9%
10
3
1.0%
5
1
0.4%
2
4
0.4%
2

evi_1 And if the by-election was held tomorrow, for which candidate/party would you vote?

Base: 473
Labour Candidate [PROMPT]
36.6%
173
Reform UK Candidate [PROMPT]
29.4%
139
UNDECIDED [DO NOT PROMPT]
15.0%
71
REFUSED [DO NOT PROMPT]
9.7%
46
Another party [PROMPT - AND FOLLOW UP, WHICH PARTY?]
2.3%
11
Green Party Candidate [PROMPT]
2.1%
10
Conservative Candidate [PROMPT]
2.1%
10
Restore Britain Candidate [PROMPT]
1.9%
9
Liberal Democrat Candidate [PROMPT]
0.8%
4

evi And if the by-election was held tomorrow, and the following candidates were standing, for which candidate would you vote?

Base: 473
Labour - Andy Burnham [PROMPT]
43.3%
205
Reform UK - Robert Kenyon [PROMPT]
29.4%
139
UNDECIDED [DO NOT PROMPT]
12.9%
61
REFUSED [DO NOT PROMPT]
7.8%
37
Restore Britain - Rebecca Shepherd [PROMPT]
2.7%
13
Conservative Candidate [PROMPT]
2.1%
10
Green Party Candidate [PROMPT]
0.8%
4
Liberal Democrat Candidate [PROMPT]
0.6%
3
Another party [PROMPT - AND FOLLOW UP, WHICH PARTY?]
0.2%
1

evi_undecided Whilst you are undecided, is there a candidate/party that you are leaning towards the most?

Base: 61
UNDECIDED [DO NOT PROMPT]
55.7%
34
REFUSED [DO NOT PROMPT]
18.0%
11
Labour - Andy Burnham [PROMPT]
9.8%
6
Reform UK - Robert Kenyon [PROMPT]
8.2%
5
Another party [PROMPT - AND FOLLOW UP, WHICH PARTY?]
3.3%
2
Restore Britain - Rebecca Shepherd [PROMPT]
3.3%
2
Conservative Candidate [PROMPT]
1.6%
1

q1_code [Interviewer to code - DO NOT READ OUT]

Base: 513
Other
38.8%
199
Immigration
20.7%
106
Cost of living
8.4%
43
Sending a message to Lab Government
7.6%
39
Local issues
6.8%
35
Preventing Reform winning
5.5%
28
Economy generally
4.9%
25
Health and NHS
4.1%
21
Housing
1.4%
7
Crime
1.0%
5
Pensions
0.8%
4
Environment
0.2%
1

q2_1 q2 - Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the following people? Nigel Farage

Base: 513
Strongly unfavorable [PROMPT]
35.7%
183
Neither favorable nor unfavorable [PROMPT]
16.4%
84
Strongly favorable [PROMPT]
14.8%
76
Somewhat favorable [PROMPT]
14.2%
73
Don’t know
10.7%
55
Somewhat unfavorable [PROMPT]
8.2%
42

q2_2 q2 - Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the following people? Keir Starmer

Base: 513
Strongly unfavorable [PROMPT]
48.5%
249
Neither favorable nor unfavorable [PROMPT]
16.0%
82
Somewhat unfavorable [PROMPT]
13.8%
71
Somewhat favorable [PROMPT]
9.2%
47
Don’t know
7.8%
40
Strongly favorable [PROMPT]
4.7%
24

q3 Which of the following is closest to your view:

Base: 513
Voting for Reform UK in this by-election is an effective way to show opposition to the Labour Government [PROMPT]
39.2%
201
Voting for Reform UK in this by-election is not an effective way to show opposition to the Labour Government [PROMPT]
31.8%
163
Don’t know
29.0%
149

q4 Which of the following comes closest to your view of Andy Burnham's decision to stand in this by-election?

Base: 513
He is standing primarily to advance his own political career [PROMPT]
50.9%
261
He is standing primarily to serve the people of Makerfield [PROMPT]
29.0%
149
Don't know
20.1%
103

eu16 Thinking back to the EU referendum in 2016, how did you vote in the referendum, or did you not vote?

Base: 513
Leave
37.0%
190
Remain
29.6%
152
Did not vote
20.5%
105
Refused
10.1%
52
Can't remember
2.7%
14

ge24_makerfield Thinking back to the last UK General Election, held in July 2024, which party or candidate did you vote for, or did you not vote?

Base: 513
Labour - Josh Simons
36.6%
188
Did not vote
16.2%
83
Reform UK - Robert Kenyon
13.5%
69
Conservative - Simon Finkelstein
12.3%
63
Refused
11.7%
60
Can't remember
6.4%
33
Green - Maria Deery
1.8%
9
Liberal Democrats - John Skipworth
1.4%
7
English Democrat - Thomas Bryer
0.2%
1

m24 Thinking back to the 2024 Greater Manchester mayoral election, which party or candidate did you vote for, or did you not vote?

Base: 513
Did not vote
41.1%
211
Labour - Andy Burnham
30.4%
156
Refused
9.9%
51
Can't remember
9.7%
50
Reform UK - Dan Barker
4.5%
23
Conservative - Laura Evans
2.9%
15
Independent - Nick Buckley
0.6%
3
Green - Hannah Spencer
0.4%
2
Liberal Democrats - Jake Austin
0.4%
2

education What is your highest level of educational qualifications?

Base: 513
Degree, HNC, HND, RSA Higher Diploma, Professional qualifications (e.g. teaching, nursing, accountancy)
32.6%
167
[DO NOT PROMPT] Refused
16.2%
83
No Qualifications
11.3%
58
2+ A Levels, 4+ AS Levels, Level 3 NVQ qualification, ONC, OND
11.1%
57
5+ O Level Passes/CSEs (Grade 1)/GCSEs (Grades A*-C), 1 A Level/2-3 AS Levels/
9.6%
49
1-4 O Levels/CSE/GCSEs (any grades), Entry Level / Foundation / Level 1 NVQ qualification
9.0%
46
Other (vocational/Work-related Qualifications)
6.8%
35
Apprenticeship / Level 2 NVQ qualification
3.5%
18

Tenure And which of the following types of housing tenure best describes the accommodation you live in?

Base: 513
Owned outright
54.8%
281
Owned with a mortgage or loan
17.2%
88
Prefer not to say
16.0%
82
Rented from Council (local Authority)
4.5%
23
Rented from private landlord or letting agency
3.1%
16
Living rent free
1.8%
9
Rented from a relative or friend of household member
1.4%
7
Rented from housing association, housing co-operative, charitable trust, or registered social landlord
0.6%
3
Other private rented
0.4%
2
Shared ownership - with a mortgage and paying rent
0.2%
1
Tied accommodation (accommodation provided by employer of a household member)
0.2%
1

emp1 Which of these activities best describes what you are doing at present?

Base: 513
Retired
44.8%
230
Employed full-time (more than 30 hours plus per week)
29.0%
149
Refused
11.9%
61
Self-employed
6.2%
32
Employed in part-time job (30 or fewer hours per week)
3.1%
16
Unable to work due to illness or disability
2.7%
14
Unemployed and actively seeking employment
1.0%
5
Unpaid family carer / homemaker
0.8%
4
Student
0.4%
2

agecat_refused If respondents have refused to give exact age, please take from the dialler.

Base: 51
45-54
31.4%
16
65-74
21.6%
11
75+
21.6%
11
25-34
11.8%
6
35-44
11.8%
6
55-64
2.0%
1

sex Please record sex.

Base: 513
Female
50.3%
258
Male
49.7%
255

sex_quota_A_1 sex_quota_A - sex.a=Male

Base: 258
sex.a=Male
100.0%
258

sex_quota_A_2 sex_quota_A - sex.a=Female

Base: 255
sex.a=Female
100.0%
255

fg_interest Thank you for your answers today. We are looking to invite people living in the Makerfield area to take part in focus groups or group discussions over the next few weeks. The sessions would be up to 90 minutes and you would be paid for yo

Base: 387
No, not interested.
77.0%
298
Yes, interested.
23.0%
89