survation. ← Fieldwork

Topline — 20260131GD CATI

386 respondents · Unweighted · 28 questions · generated 2026-09-21 13:15 UTC
Provisional: live fieldwork, 386 interviews so far. Percentages are of each question's valid base (missing/not-asked excluded). Right-hand grey figure = count.

Quota fill from response data

Computed directly from the answers, so it stays correct even when a survey's platform quota counter is broken. ⚠ = platform counter disagrees.
ward
Burnage
86/80 ⚠
Gorton and Abbey Hey
72/91 ⚠
Levenshulme
66/85 ⚠
Longsight
62/90 ⚠
Audenshaw
0/54
Denton North East
39/49 ⚠
Denton South
26/51 ⚠
Denton West
35/50 ⚠
agecat
18-24
26/84
25-34
58/105
35-44
86/106
45-54
58/86
55-64
82/77 ⚠
65-74
76/92
agecat_large
18-34
84/9999
35-54
144/9999
55+
158/9999
sex_quota
Male
175/281 ⚠
Female
211/269 ⚠
ethnicity_quota
White
181/9999 ⚠
Mixed/multiple ethnic groups
11/9999 ⚠
Asian
106/9999 ⚠
Black/African/Caribbean
23/9999 ⚠
[DO NOT PROMPT] Refused
52/9999 ⚠
ethnicity_white_quota
English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish or British
169/9999 ⚠
Irish
5/9999 ⚠
Gypsy or Irish Traveller
1/9999 ⚠
Roma
0/9999
Other White background
4/9999 ⚠
[DO NOT PROMPT] Refused
2/9999 ⚠

ward Can I confirm that you live in the [NAME] ward?If they don't know, ask for postcode, so the ward can be looked up here:

Base: 386
Burnage
22.3%
86
Gorton and Abbey Hey
18.7%
72
Levenshulme
17.1%
66
Longsight
16.1%
62
Denton North East
10.1%
39
Denton West
9.1%
35
Denton South
6.7%
26

ge24_gortonanddenton Thinking back to the last UK General Election, held in July 2024, which party or candidate did you vote for, or did you not vote?

Base: 386
Labour - Andrew Gwynne
40.9%
158
Did not vote
24.9%
96
Can't remember
9.1%
35
Refused
7.3%
28
Conservative - Ruth Welsh
5.7%
22
Reform - Lee Moffitt
5.2%
20
Green - Amanda Gardner
4.4%
17
Liberal Democrats - John Reid
2.1%
8
Workers Party - Amir Burney
0.5%
2

m24 Thinking back to the 2024 Greater Manchester mayoral election, which party or candidate did you vote for, or did you not vote?

Base: 386
Labour - Andy Burnham
36.5%
141
Did not vote
32.9%
127
Can't remember
15.8%
61
Refused
7.3%
28
Conservative - Laura Evans
2.8%
11
Reform UK - Dan Barker
2.3%
9
Liberal Democrats - Jake Austin
1.3%
5
Green - Hannah Spencer
1.0%
4

ltv In the upcoming by-election on February 26th, on a scale of 0 - 10, where 0 is would not vote and 10 is certain to vote, how likely would you be to vote in this election?

Base: 386
10 - Certain to vote
57.5%
222
0 - Would not vote
17.4%
67
5
8.0%
31
8
6.0%
23
6
3.4%
13
7
2.8%
11
9
1.8%
7
2
1.0%
4
4
1.0%
4
1
0.5%
2
3
0.5%
2

evi And if the by-election was held today, for which candidate would you vote?

Base: 319
UNDECIDED [DO NOT PROMPT]
27.0%
86
Labour - Angeliki Stogia [PROMPT]
25.1%
80
Reform UK - Matt Goodwin [PROMPT]
16.9%
54
Green Party - Hannah Spencer [PROMPT]
14.7%
47
REFUSED [DO NOT PROMPT]
8.8%
28
Conservative - Charlotte Cadden [PROMPT]
3.8%
12
Liberal Democrats - Jackie Pearcey [PROMPT]
1.9%
6
George Galloway's Workers’ Party - Candidate, Shahbaz Sarwar [PROMPT]
0.9%
3
Another party [PROMPT - AND FOLLOW UP, WHICH PARTY?]
0.6%
2
Libertarian Party - Dan Clarke [PROMPT]
0.3%
1

evi_undecided Whilst you are undecided, is there a candidate/party that you are leaning towards the most?

Base: 86
UNDECIDED [DO NOT PROMPT]
65.1%
56
Labour - Angeliki Stogia [PROMPT]
14.0%
12
Green Party - Hannah Spencer [PROMPT]
9.3%
8
Reform UK - Matt Goodwin [PROMPT]
5.8%
5
George Galloway's Workers’ Party - Candidate, Shahbaz Sarwar [PROMPT]
2.3%
2
REFUSED [DO NOT PROMPT]
2.3%
2
Liberal Democrats - Jackie Pearcey [PROMPT]
1.2%
1

evi_second_choice And if you had to pick a party or candidate that would be your second choice, which party or candidate would you choose?

Base: 319
UNDECIDED [DO NOT PROMPT]
34.8%
111
REFUSED [DO NOT PROMPT]
19.1%
61
Green Party - Hannah Spencer [PROMPT]
15.7%
50
Labour - Angeliki Stogia [PROMPT]
11.3%
36
Conservative - Charlotte Cadden [PROMPT]
6.6%
21
Liberal Democrats - Jackie Pearcey [PROMPT]
6.0%
19
Reform UK - Matt Goodwin [PROMPT]
2.5%
8
Another party [PROMPT - AND FOLLOW UP, WHICH PARTY?]
1.6%
5
Social Democratic Party - Sebastian Moore [PROMPT]
1.3%
4
Libertarian Party - Dan Clarke [PROMPT]
0.6%
2
George Galloway's Workers’ Party - Candidate, Shahbaz Sarwar [PROMPT]
0.3%
1
Advance UK - Nick Buckley [PROMPT]
0.3%
1

most_likely Regardless of the result you would like to see, who do you expect is most likely to win the by-election?

Base: 319
Labour - Angeliki Stogia [PROMPT]
31.7%
101
Reform UK - Matt Goodwin [PROMPT]
29.2%
93
Don't know [DO NOT PROMPT]
29.2%
93
Green Party - Hannah Spencer [PROMPT]
6.0%
19
Conservative - Charlotte Cadden [PROMPT]
2.8%
9
Liberal Democrats - Jackie Pearcey [PROMPT]
0.6%
2
George Galloway's Workers’ Party - Candidate, Shahbaz Sarwar [PROMPT]
0.3%
1
Advance UK - Nick Buckley [PROMPT]
0.3%
1

most_worry Regardless of the result you would think is most likely, which result would worry you the most?

Base: 319
Don't know [DO NOT PROMPT]
39.2%
125
Reform UK - Matt Goodwin [PROMPT]
31.3%
100
Labour - Angeliki Stogia [PROMPT]
20.1%
64
Green Party - Hannah Spencer [PROMPT]
4.1%
13
Conservative - Charlotte Cadden [PROMPT]
3.4%
11
Advance UK - Nick Buckley [PROMPT]
1.3%
4
Another party [PROMPT - AND FOLLOW UP, WHICH PARTY?]
0.6%
2

agecat_refused If respondents have refused to give exact age, please take from the dialler.

Base: 36
35-44
25.0%
9
25-34
19.4%
7
45-54
19.4%
7
55-64
16.7%
6
75+
16.7%
6
18-24
2.8%
1

sex Please record sex.

Base: 386
Male
54.7%
211
Female
45.3%
175

sex_quota_A_1 sex_quota_A - sex.a=Male

Base: 175
sex.a=Male
100.0%
175

sex_quota_A_2 sex_quota_A - sex.a=Female

Base: 211
sex.a=Female
100.0%
211

education What is your highest level of educational qualifications?

Base: 386
Degree, HNC, HND, RSA Higher Diploma, Professional qualifications (e.g. teaching, nursing, accountancy)
35.0%
135
[DO NOT PROMPT] Refused
18.1%
70
2+ A Levels, 4+ AS Levels, Level 3 NVQ qualification, ONC, OND
16.8%
65
No Qualifications
10.4%
40
1-4 O Levels/CSE/GCSEs (any grades), Entry Level / Foundation / Level 1 NVQ qualification
7.8%
30
5+ O Level Passes/CSEs (Grade 1)/GCSEs (Grades A*-C), 1 A Level/2-3 AS Levels/
6.5%
25
Other (vocational/Work-related Qualifications)
3.9%
15
Apprenticeship / Level 2 NVQ qualification
1.6%
6

ethnicity How would you describe your ethnic origin?

Base: 386
White
46.9%
181
Asian
27.5%
106
[DO NOT PROMPT] Refused
13.5%
52
Black/African/Caribbean
6.0%
23
Other ethnic group (please specify):
3.4%
13
Mixed/multiple ethnic groups
2.8%
11

ethnicity_quota_A_1 ethnicity_quota_A - ethnicity.a=White

Base: 181
ethnicity.a=White
100.0%
181

ethnicity_quota_A_2 ethnicity_quota_A - ethnicity.a=Mixed/multiple ethnic groups

Base: 11
ethnicity.a=Mixed/multiple ethnic groups
100.0%
11

ethnicity_quota_A_3 ethnicity_quota_A - ethnicity.a=Asian

Base: 106
ethnicity.a=Asian
100.0%
106

ethnicity_quota_A_4 ethnicity_quota_A - ethnicity.a=Black/African/Caribbean

Base: 23
ethnicity.a=Black/African/Caribbean
100.0%
23

ethnicity_quota_A_5 ethnicity_quota_A - ethnicity.a=Other ethnic group (please specify):

Base: 13
ethnicity.a=Other ethnic group (please specify):
100.0%
13

ethnicity_quota_A_6 ethnicity_quota_A - ethnicity.a=[DO NOT PROMPT] Refused

Base: 52
ethnicity.a=[DO NOT PROMPT] Refused
100.0%
52

ethnicity_white Which of the following best describes your White ethnic background?

Base: 181
English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish or British
93.4%
169
Irish
2.8%
5
Other White background
2.2%
4
[DO NOT PROMPT] Refused
1.1%
2
Gypsy or Irish Traveller
0.6%
1

ethnicity_white_quota_A_1 ethnicity_white_quota_A - ethnicity_white.a=English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish or British

Base: 169
ethnicity_white.a=English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish or British
100.0%
169

ethnicity_white_quota_A_2 ethnicity_white_quota_A - ethnicity_white.a=Irish

Base: 5
ethnicity_white.a=Irish
100.0%
5

ethnicity_white_quota_A_3 ethnicity_white_quota_A - ethnicity_white.a=Gypsy or Irish Traveller

Base: 1
ethnicity_white.a=Gypsy or Irish Traveller
100.0%
1

ethnicity_white_quota_A_5 ethnicity_white_quota_A - ethnicity_white.a=Other White background

Base: 4
ethnicity_white.a=Other White background
100.0%
4

ethnicity_white_quota_A_6 ethnicity_white_quota_A - ethnicity_white.a=[DO NOT PROMPT] Refused

Base: 2
ethnicity_white.a=[DO NOT PROMPT] Refused
100.0%
2

emp1 Which of these activities best describes what you are doing at present?

Base: 386
Employed full-time (more than 30 hours plus per week)
32.9%
127
Retired
17.1%
66
Refused
15.5%
60
Self-employed
10.1%
39
Employed in part-time job (30 or fewer hours per week)
9.6%
37
Unpaid family carer / homemaker
4.4%
17
Unable to work due to illness or disability
3.9%
15
Unemployed and actively seeking employment
3.6%
14
Student
2.6%
10
On a government supported training programme (eg, Apprenticeship)
0.3%
1