Topline — 2026-05-27-FD - FINAL

548 respondents · Unweighted · 48 questions · generated 2026-09-21 10:40 UTC

Provisional: live fieldwork, 548 interviews so far. Percentages are of each question's valid base (missing/not-asked excluded). Right-hand grey figure = count.

Quota fill from response data

Computed directly from the answers, so it stays correct even when a survey's platform quota counter is broken. ⚠ = platform counter disagrees.

ward

Burnage

53/80 ⚠

Gorton and Abbey Hey

79/91 ⚠

Levenshulme

54/85 ⚠

Longsight

0/90

Audenshaw

101/54 ⚠

Denton North East

83/49 ⚠

Denton South

5/51 ⚠

Denton West

15/50 ⚠

agecat

18-24

19/84

25-34

38/105

35-44

47/106

45-54

81/86

55-64

124/150

65-74

239/150 ⚠

agecat_large

18-34

57/9999

35-54

128/9999

55+

363/9999

sex_quota

Male

295/281 ⚠

Female

253/269 ⚠

ward Can I confirm that you live in the [NAME] ward?[If they don't know, ask for postcode, so the ward can be looked up here]

Base: 548

Hindley

18.4%

101

Hindley Green

15.1%

Ashton-in-Makerfield South

14.4%

Bryn with Ashton-in-Makerfield North

9.9%

Winstanley

9.9%

Abram

9.7%

Worsley Mesnes

9.7%

Orrell

9.3%

Leigh West

2.7%

Ince

0.9%

q1_1 q1 - PASTE POSTCODE PLEASE TYPE HERE:

Base: 482

PLEASE TYPE HERE:

100.0%

482

q1_2 q1 - PASTE POSTCODE Refused

Base: 66

Refused

100.0%

q2 Are you registered to vote in a General Election?

Base: 548

Yes

98.2%

538

1.6%

Don't know [DO NOT PROMPT]

0.2%

ltv If there were to be a general election, on a scale of 0 - 10, where 0 is would not vote and 10 is certain to vote, how likely would you be to vote?

Base: 548

10 - certain to vote

77.0%

422

5.3%

3.8%

3.6%

0 - would not vote

2.9%

1.3%

0.7%

0.4%

q3 If there was a General Election tomorrow, which party would you vote for, or would you not vote?

Base: 548

Labour [PROMPT]

36.5%

200

Reform UK [PROMPT]

22.3%

122

Don't know [DO NOT PROMPT]

13.3%

Prefer not to say [DO NOT PROMPT]

7.1%

I would not vote

6.2%

Conservatives [PROMPT]

5.1%

Other

4.4%

Green Party [PROMPT]

3.8%

Liberal Democrats [PROMPT]

1.3%

q4 Which way do you think you would be most likely to vote?

Base: 73

Don't know [DO NOT PROMPT]

42.5%

Labour [PROMPT]

26.0%

Reform UK [PROMPT]

13.7%

Conservatives [PROMPT]

8.2%

Other

6.8%

I would not vote

2.7%

q6 As you may or may not be aware, there is a by-election taking place in Makerfield on the 18th of June, 2026 to elect a new MP. How likely are you to vote in this election?

Base: 548

10 - Certain to vote

81.4%

446

0 - Certain not to vote

5.5%

3.3%

2.9%

2.4%

0.9%

0.5%

0.2%

q7 In the Makerfield by-election on the 18th of June, 2026, who are you most likely to vote for or would you not vote?

Base: 548

Labour [PROMPT]

49.5%

271

Reform UK [PROMPT]

25.9%

142

Don't know [DO NOT PROMPT]

6.0%

I will not vote

5.7%

Prefer not to say [DO NOT PROMPT]

5.7%

Restore UK [PROMPT]

3.5%

Conservatives [PROMPT]

2.4%

Green Party [PROMPT]

0.7%

Other party or independent

0.7%

q8 In the Makerfield by-election on the 18th of June, 2026, who are you most likely to vote for or would you not vote?

Base: 33

I would not vote

36.4%

Labour [PROMPT]

27.3%

Other party or independent

24.2%

Reform UK [PROMPT]

12.1%

q9 Given the following list of candidates, in the Makerfield by-election on the 18th of June, 2026, who are you most likely to vote for or would you not vote?

Base: 548

Andy Burnham - Labour [PROMPT]

52.2%

286

Robert Kenyon - Reform UK [PROMPT]

25.9%

142

I will not vote

5.5%

Prefer not to say [DO NOT PROMPT]

4.2%

Rebecca Shepherd - Restore UK [PROMPT]

4.0%

Don't know [DO NOT PROMPT]

3.5%

Michael Winstanley - Conservatives [PROMPT]

2.7%

Other party or independent

1.1%

Sarah Wakefield - Green Party [PROMPT]

0.7%

Jake Austin - Liberal Democrats [PROMPT]

0.2%

q10 Which way do you think you would be most likely to vote?

Base: 19

I would not vote

57.9%

Other party or independent

26.3%

Robert Kenyon - Reform UK [PROMPT]

15.8%

q11_1 q11 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Keeping Reform UK out

Base: 250

Keeping Reform UK out

100.0%

250

q11_2 q11 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Keeping Labour out

Base: 154

Keeping Labour out

100.0%

154

q11_3 q11 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Keeping the Green Party out

Base: 194

Keeping the Green Party out

100.0%

194

q11_4 q11 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? I want Andy Burnham have a chance to beat Kier Starmer in a leadership challenge for Prime Minister

Base: 147

I want Andy Burnham have a chance to beat Kier Starmer in a leadership challenge for Prime Minister

100.0%

147

q11_5 q11 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Sending a message about Gaza

Base: 110

Sending a message about Gaza

100.0%

110

q11_6 q11 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Who would be the best at sorting out local issues in Makerfield

Base: 390

Who would be the best at sorting out local issues in Makerfield

100.0%

390

q11_7 q11 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Who would be best to represent Makerfield on national issues

Base: 394

Who would be best to represent Makerfield on national issues

100.0%

394

q11_8 q11 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Who would be best on the cost of living

Base: 348

Who would be best on the cost of living

100.0%

348

q11_9 q11 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Who would be best on the NHS

Base: 341

Who would be best on the NHS

100.0%

341

q11_10 q11 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Who would be best on immigration

Base: 304

Who would be best on immigration

100.0%

304

q11_11 q11 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? I like the national policies of the party I am voting for

Base: 340

I like the national policies of the party I am voting for

100.0%

340

q11_12 q11 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? I always tend to vote for this party

Base: 192

I always tend to vote for this party

100.0%

192

q11_13 q11 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? Other (please specify)

Base: 108

Other (please specify)

100.0%

108

q11_14 q11 - Which of the following reasons is most influencing who you are voting for? None of these

Base: 24

None of these

100.0%

q12 Some people believe that if Andy Burnham wins this by-election, he could go on to challenge Keir Starmer and potentially become the next Prime Minister.Which comes closest to your view?

Base: 548

I would like Andy Burnham to be the next Prime Minister, that's why I am planning to vote Labour

30.1%

165

None of these

22.1%

121

I don't really care who leads the Labour party

17.2%

I would like Andy Burnham to be the next Prime Minister, but I am still planning to vote for a different party

15.5%

I do not want Andy Burnham to lead the Labour party

15.1%

q13_1 q13 - Which of the following leaders do you think would be best at handling each of the following issues? The Economy

Base: 548

Andy Burnham

35.9%

197

None of these

23.5%

129

Nigel Farage

19.3%

106

Kemi Badenoch

12.6%

Keir Starmer

6.8%

Zack Polanski

1.3%

Ed Davey

0.5%

q13_2 q13 - Which of the following leaders do you think would be best at handling each of the following issues? Defence

Base: 548

None of these

29.9%

164

Andy Burnham

28.1%

154

Nigel Farage

20.8%

114

Kemi Badenoch

10.9%

Keir Starmer

9.1%

Ed Davey

0.5%

Zack Polanski

0.5%

q13_3 q13 - Which of the following leaders do you think would be best at handling each of the following issues? The Cost of Living

Base: 548

Andy Burnham

39.8%

218

None of these

22.4%

123

Nigel Farage

20.3%

111

Kemi Badenoch

9.1%

Keir Starmer

5.5%

Zack Polanski

2.0%

Ed Davey

0.9%

q13_4 q13 - Which of the following leaders do you think would be best at handling each of the following issues? Taxes

Base: 548

Andy Burnham

33.8%

185

None of these

25.0%

137

Nigel Farage

21.5%

118

Kemi Badenoch

10.9%

Keir Starmer

5.3%

Ed Davey

1.8%

Zack Polanski

1.6%

q13_5 q13 - Which of the following leaders do you think would be best at handling each of the following issues? Healthcare

Base: 548

Andy Burnham

42.5%

233

None of these

21.5%

118

Nigel Farage

17.5%

Kemi Badenoch

8.4%

Keir Starmer

7.1%

Zack Polanski

1.6%

Ed Davey

1.3%

q13_6 q13 - Which of the following leaders do you think would be best at handling each of the following issues? Immigration

Base: 548

Nigel Farage

34.9%

191

Andy Burnham

26.1%

143

None of these

23.0%

126

Keir Starmer

6.4%

Kemi Badenoch

6.4%

Zack Polanski

2.6%

Ed Davey

0.7%

q14 Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?

Base: 548

Andy Burnham

45.6%

250

Nigel Farage

19.5%

107

None of these

16.8%

Kemi Badenoch

10.4%

Kier Starmer

5.3%

Zack Polanski

1.5%

Ed Davey

0.9%

q15 Imagine that in the Makerfield by-election on the 18th of June, 2026, only Labour or Reform UK were likely to win. In this situation, who would you vote for?

Base: 548

Labour [PROMPT]

56.0%

307

Reform UK [PROMPT]

32.3%

177

I would not vote [DO NOT PROMPT]

7.5%

Other party or independent

2.4%

Conservatives [PROMPT]

1.1%

Green Party [PROMPT]

0.5%

Advance UK [PROMPT]

0.2%

q16 Regardless of the result you would like to see, who do you expect is most likely to win the by-election in Makerfield?

Base: 548

Labour [PROMPT]

59.3%

325

Reform UK [PROMPT]

25.5%

140

Don't know [DO NOT PROMPT]

13.5%

Other party or independent

0.9%

Conservatives [PROMPT]

0.4%

Liberal Democrats [PROMPT]

0.2%

Green Party [PROMPT]

0.2%

PV1_q5 How did you vote in the 7th of May 2026 UK Local Elections, or did you not vote?

Base: 548

Labour

29.9%

164

I did not vote in the local elections

26.3%

144

Reform UK

24.1%

132

Don't know [DO NOT PROMPT]

9.1%

Conservative

5.1%

Green Party

3.8%

Liberal Democrats

1.6%

A6 How did you vote in the UK 2024 General Election, or did you not vote?

Base: 548

Labour

41.1%

225

Conservative

14.6%

Did not vote

13.9%

Reform UK

13.3%

Can't remember [DO NOT PROMPT]

6.2%

Prefer not to say [DO NOT PROMPT]

5.1%

Liberal Democrats

2.4%

Green Party

2.2%

Other party or independent

1.3%

agecat_refused If respondents have refused to give exact age, please take from the dialler.

Base: 27

25-34

37.0%

65-74

33.3%

55-64

11.1%

18-24

7.4%

45-54

7.4%

35-44

3.7%

sex Please record sex.

Base: 548

Female

53.8%

295

Male

46.2%

253

sex_quota_A_1 sex_quota_A - sex.a=Male

Base: 295

sex.a=Male

100.0%

295

sex_quota_A_2 sex_quota_A - sex.a=Female

Base: 253

sex.a=Female

100.0%

253

sex_quota_B_1 sex_quota_B - sex.a=Male

Base: 1

sex.a=Male

100.0%

sex_quota_B_2 sex_quota_B - sex.a=Female

Base: 2

sex.a=Female

100.0%

gender What is your gender?

Base: 548

Female

56.8%

311

Male

43.2%

237

education What is the highest level of education you have attained so far?

Base: 548

Degree, HNC, HND, RSA Higher Diploma, Professional qualifications (e.g. teaching, nursing, accountancy)

38.1%

209

2+ A Levels, 4+ AS Levels, Level 3 NVQ qualification, ONC, OND

15.1%

1-4 O Levels/CSE/GCSEs (any grades), Entry Level / Foundation / Level 1 NVQ qualification

12.0%

5+ O Level Passes/CSEs (Grade 1)/GCSEs (Grades A*-C), 1 A Level/2-3 AS Levels/

11.9%

No Qualifications

7.7%

Other (vocational/Work-related Qualifications)

5.3%

Refused [DO NOT PROMPT]

5.3%

Apprenticeship / Level 2 NVQ qualification

4.6%

Religion What is your religion?

Base: 548

Christian (including Church of England, Catholic, Protestant and all other Christian denominations)

70.3%

385

No religion

26.3%

144

Any other religion [DO NOT PROMPT]

3.1%

Muslim

0.4%

ethnicity_1 What is your ethnic group?

Base: 548

White

96.4%

528

Other ethnic group (please specify):

1.8%

Refused [DO NOT PROMPT]

0.9%

Mixed/multiple ethnic groups

0.5%

Asian

0.2%

Black/African/Caribbean

0.2%