survation. ← Fieldwork

Topline — 20251007CPA CATI

471 respondents · Unweighted · 37 questions · generated 2026-09-21 13:55 UTC
Provisional: live fieldwork, 471 interviews so far. Percentages are of each question's valid base (missing/not-asked excluded). Right-hand grey figure = count.

Quota fill from response data

Computed directly from the answers, so it stays correct even when a survey's platform quota counter is broken. ⚠ = platform counter disagrees.
qWard
Aber (ab-air) Valley
40/34 ⚠
Aberbargoed & Bargoed (ab-air-baa-god and baa-god)
63/55 ⚠
Bedwas & Trethomas (bed-wos and treh-tom-moss)
40/37 ⚠
Gilfach (gill-va-ch)
25/12 ⚠
Hengoed (hen-goyd)
32/29 ⚠
Llanbradach (ll-anne-brad-ah-ch)
13/23 ⚠
Machen & Rudry (ma-ch-en & r-hudd-ree)
19/27 ⚠
Morgan Jones
38/41 ⚠
Nelson
25/26 ⚠
Penyrheol (pen-err-hay-all)
57/67 ⚠
St Cattwg (cat-uh-g; uh as it is in "Put")
40/41 ⚠
St Martins
45/46 ⚠
Van
17/26 ⚠
Ystrad Mynach (us-trahd mun-ah-ch)
17/30 ⚠
agecat
18-24
15/56
25-34
30/79
35-44
57/84
45-54
87/79 ⚠
55-64
101/82 ⚠
65-74
166/124 ⚠
agecat_large
18-34
45/9999
35-54
144/9999
55+
282/9999
sex_quota
Male
230/260 ⚠
Female
229/240 ⚠

ward Can I confirm that you live in the [NAME] ward?If they don't know, ask for postcode, so the ward can be looked up here:

Base: 471
Aberbargoed & Bargoed (ab-air-baa-god and baa-god)
13.4%
63
Penyrheol (pen-err-hay-all)
12.1%
57
St Martins
9.6%
45
Aber (ab-air) Valley
8.5%
40
Bedwas & Trethomas (bed-wos and treh-tom-moss)
8.5%
40
St Cattwg (cat-uh-g; uh as it is in "Put")
8.5%
40
Morgan Jones
8.1%
38
Hengoed (hen-goyd)
6.8%
32
Gilfach (gill-va-ch)
5.3%
25
Nelson
5.3%
25
Machen & Rudry (ma-ch-en & r-hudd-ree)
4.0%
19
Van
3.6%
17
Ystrad Mynach (us-trahd mun-ah-ch)
3.6%
17
Llanbradach (ll-anne-brad-ah-ch)
2.8%
13

qWard_A_1 qWard_A - ward.a=Aber (ab-air) Valley

Base: 36
ward.a=Aber (ab-air) Valley
100.0%
36

qWard_A_2 qWard_A - ward.a=Aberbargoed & Bargoed (ab-air-baa-god and baa-god)

Base: 56
ward.a=Aberbargoed & Bargoed (ab-air-baa-god and baa-god)
100.0%
56

qWard_A_3 qWard_A - ward.a=Bedwas & Trethomas (bed-wos and treh-tom-moss)

Base: 39
ward.a=Bedwas & Trethomas (bed-wos and treh-tom-moss)
100.0%
39

qWard_A_4 qWard_A - ward.a=Gilfach (gill-va-ch)

Base: 23
ward.a=Gilfach (gill-va-ch)
100.0%
23

qWard_A_5 qWard_A - ward.a=Hengoed (hen-goyd)

Base: 30
ward.a=Hengoed (hen-goyd)
100.0%
30

qWard_A_6 qWard_A - ward.a=Llanbradach (ll-anne-brad-ah-ch)

Base: 13
ward.a=Llanbradach (ll-anne-brad-ah-ch)
100.0%
13

qWard_A_7 qWard_A - ward.a=Machen & Rudry (ma-ch-en & r-hudd-ree)

Base: 16
ward.a=Machen & Rudry (ma-ch-en & r-hudd-ree)
100.0%
16

qWard_A_8 qWard_A - ward.a=Morgan Jones

Base: 38
ward.a=Morgan Jones
100.0%
38

qWard_A_9 qWard_A - ward.a=Nelson

Base: 24
ward.a=Nelson
100.0%
24

qWard_A_10 qWard_A - ward.a=Penyrheol (pen-err-hay-all)

Base: 56
ward.a=Penyrheol (pen-err-hay-all)
100.0%
56

qWard_A_11 qWard_A - ward.a=St Cattwg (cat-uh-g; uh as it is in "Put")

Base: 33
ward.a=St Cattwg (cat-uh-g; uh as it is in "Put")
100.0%
33

qWard_A_12 qWard_A - ward.a=St Martins

Base: 45
ward.a=St Martins
100.0%
45

qWard_A_13 qWard_A - ward.a=Van

Base: 17
ward.a=Van
100.0%
17

qWard_A_14 qWard_A - ward.a=Ystrad Mynach (us-trahd mun-ah-ch)

Base: 14
ward.a=Ystrad Mynach (us-trahd mun-ah-ch)
100.0%
14

ltv There is a Senedd by-election coming up in Caerphilly on Thursday, 23rd October 2025. On a scale of 0 - 10, where 0 is would not vote and 10 is certain to vote, how likely would you be to vote in this election?

Base: 471
10 - Certain to vote
64.3%
303
0 - Would not vote
10.2%
48
5
5.1%
24
Already voted by post
4.7%
22
8
3.8%
18
7
3.4%
16
9
3.2%
15
6
1.9%
9
3
1.3%
6
1
0.8%
4
2
0.8%
4
4
0.4%
2

evi And if the by-election was held today, for which candidate would you vote?

Base: 401
LlŷrTomos (Hlh-eer Tom-oss (like Thomas)) Powell, Reform UK
28.4%
114
Undecided [Do not prompt]
25.4%
102
Lindsay Geoffrey Whittle, Plaid Cymru (Plied Cum-Ree)
21.2%
85
Refused [Do not prompt]
14.2%
57
Richard Tunnicliffe, Labour
7.5%
30
Gareth John Potter, Conservative
2.2%
9
Steve Aicheler (EYE-klur), Liberal Democrats
0.5%
2
Gareth Hughes, Green Party
0.5%
2

evi_post For whom did you vote using your postal vote?

Base: 22
Refused [Do not prompt]
36.4%
8
LlŷrTomos (Hlh-eer Tom-oss (like Thomas)) Powell, Reform UK
27.3%
6
Lindsay Geoffrey Whittle, Plaid Cymru (Plied Cum-Ree)
18.2%
4
Richard Tunnicliffe, Labour
9.1%
2
Gareth Hughes, Green Party
4.5%
1
Can't remember [Do not prompt]
4.5%
1

evi_undecided Whilst you are undecided, is there a candidate/party that you are leaning towards the most?

Base: 102
Undecided [Do not prompt]
58.8%
60
Lindsay Geoffrey Whittle, Plaid Cymru (Plied Cum-Ree)
14.7%
15
LlŷrTomos (Hlh-eer Tom-oss (like Thomas)) Powell, Reform UK
7.8%
8
Richard Tunnicliffe, Labour
6.9%
7
Refused [Do not prompt]
6.9%
7
Gareth John Potter, Conservative
2.0%
2
Roger Anthony Quilliam, UKIP
2.0%
2
Gareth Hughes, Green Party
1.0%
1

ge24_caerphilly Thinking back to the last UK General Election, held in July 2024, which party or candidate did you vote for, or did you not vote?

Base: 383
Chris Evans, Labour and Co-operative Party
28.5%
109
Did not vote [Do not prompt]
19.8%
76
Lindsay Whittle, Plaid Cymru (Plied Cum-Ree)
12.5%
48
Brandon Gorman, Conservative
10.7%
41
Refused [Do not prompt]
10.4%
40
Joshua Seungkyun Kim, Reform UK
8.4%
32
Can't remember [Do not prompt]
7.8%
30
Mark Thomas, Green Party
1.3%
5
Steve Aicheler (EYE-klur), Liberal Democrats
0.5%
2

ge24_bgr Thinking back to the last UK General Election, held in July 2024, which party or candidate did you vote for, or did you not vote?

Base: 88
Did not vote [Do not prompt]
29.5%
26
Nick Smith, Labour Party
25.0%
22
Hannah Jarvis, Conservative
11.4%
10
Refused [Do not prompt]
11.4%
10
Niamh (Neef) Salkeld, Plaid Cymru (Plied Cum-Ree)
8.0%
7
Can't remember [Do not prompt]
6.8%
6
Mike Whatley, Independent
3.4%
3
Jackie Charlton, Liberal Democrats
3.4%
3
Anne Baker, Green Party
1.1%
1

senedd21_1 senedd21 - And thinking back to the last Senedd election in May 2021, for which candidate did you vote with your constituency vote in Caerphilly, or did you not vote? Hefin David, Labour

Base: 131
Hefin David, Labour
100.0%
131

senedd21_2 senedd21 - And thinking back to the last Senedd election in May 2021, for which candidate did you vote with your constituency vote in Caerphilly, or did you not vote? Delyth Jewell, Plaid Cymru (Plied Cum-Ree)

Base: 65
Delyth Jewell, Plaid Cymru (Plied Cum-Ree)
100.0%
65

senedd21_3 senedd21 - And thinking back to the last Senedd election in May 2021, for which candidate did you vote with your constituency vote in Caerphilly, or did you not vote? Steven Mayfield, Conservative

Base: 52
Steven Mayfield, Conservative
100.0%
52

senedd21_5 senedd21 - And thinking back to the last Senedd election in May 2021, for which candidate did you vote with your constituency vote in Caerphilly, or did you not vote? Stephen John Jones, Abolish

Base: 1
Stephen John Jones, Abolish
100.0%
1

senedd21_6 senedd21 - And thinking back to the last Senedd election in May 2021, for which candidate did you vote with your constituency vote in Caerphilly, or did you not vote? Steve Aicheler (EYE-klur), Liberal Democrats

Base: 1
Steve Aicheler (EYE-klur), Liberal Democrats
100.0%
1

senedd21_7 senedd21 - And thinking back to the last Senedd election in May 2021, for which candidate did you vote with your constituency vote in Caerphilly, or did you not vote? Tim Price, Reform UK

Base: 9
Tim Price, Reform UK
100.0%
9

senedd21_10 senedd21 - And thinking back to the last Senedd election in May 2021, for which candidate did you vote with your constituency vote in Caerphilly, or did you not vote? Did not vote [Do not prompt]

Base: 91
Did not vote [Do not prompt]
100.0%
91

senedd21_11 senedd21 - And thinking back to the last Senedd election in May 2021, for which candidate did you vote with your constituency vote in Caerphilly, or did you not vote? Can't remember [Do not prompt]

Base: 78
Can't remember [Do not prompt]
100.0%
78

senedd21_12 senedd21 - And thinking back to the last Senedd election in May 2021, for which candidate did you vote with your constituency vote in Caerphilly, or did you not vote? Refused [Do not prompt]

Base: 43
Refused [Do not prompt]
100.0%
43

agecat_refused If respondents have refused to give exact age, please take from the dialler.

Base: 45
55-64
37.8%
17
65-74
24.4%
11
45-54
15.6%
7
35-44
11.1%
5
75+
11.1%
5

sex What is your sex?

Base: 471
Female
48.8%
230
Male
48.6%
229
Prefer not to say
2.5%
12

sex_quota_A_1 sex_quota_A - sex.a=Male

Base: 230
sex.a=Male
100.0%
230

sex_quota_A_2 sex_quota_A - sex.a=Female

Base: 229
sex.a=Female
100.0%
229

education What is your highest level of educational qualifications?

Base: 471
Degree, HNC, HND, RSA Higher Diploma, Professional qualifications (e.g. teaching, nursing, accountancy)
36.1%
170
[DO NOT PROMPT] Refused
13.8%
65
2+ A Levels, 4+ AS Levels, Level 3 NVQ qualification, ONC, OND
12.1%
57
5+ O Level Passes/CSEs (Grade 1)/GCSEs (Grades A*-C), 1 A Level/2-3 AS Levels/
11.0%
52
No Qualifications
10.4%
49
1-4 O Levels/CSE/GCSEs (any grades), Entry Level / Foundation / Level 1 NVQ qualification
7.4%
35
Apprenticeship / Level 2 NVQ qualification
4.9%
23
Other (vocational/Work-related Qualifications)
4.2%
20

emp1 Which of these activities best describes what you are doing at present?

Base: 471
Retired
35.5%
167
Employed full-time (more than 30 hours plus per week)
32.3%
152
Refused
11.0%
52
Employed in part-time job (30 or fewer hours per week)
7.4%
35
Self-employed
6.2%
29
Unable to work due to illness or disability
4.5%
21
Unemployed and actively seeking employment
1.7%
8
Unpaid family carer / homemaker
0.8%
4
Student
0.4%
2
On a government supported training programme (eg, Apprenticeship)
0.2%
1

income For demographic purposes could you tell me which of the following categories best describes your household income, including all benefits, but before tax is deducted?

Base: 471
Prefer not to say/Don't know
37.6%
177
£40,000 or more
26.5%
125
£20,000 - £39,999
19.3%
91
Less than £20,000
16.6%
78