survation. ← Fieldwork

Topline — 20260128GD CATI

483 respondents · Unweighted · 41 questions · generated 2026-09-21 13:17 UTC
Provisional: live fieldwork, 483 interviews so far. Percentages are of each question's valid base (missing/not-asked excluded). Right-hand grey figure = count.

Quota fill from response data

Computed directly from the answers, so it stays correct even when a survey's platform quota counter is broken. ⚠ = platform counter disagrees.
ward
Burnage
80/80 ⚠
Gorton and Abbey Hey
71/91 ⚠
Levenshulme
81/85 ⚠
Longsight
76/90 ⚠
Audenshaw
1/54 ⚠
Denton North East
55/49 ⚠
Denton South
65/51 ⚠
Denton West
54/50 ⚠
agecat
18-24
27/84 ⚠
25-34
37/105
35-44
78/106
45-54
105/86 ⚠
55-64
98/77 ⚠
65-74
137/92 ⚠
agecat_large
18-34
65/9999
35-54
183/9999
55+
235/9999
sex_quota
Male
240/281 ⚠
Female
242/269 ⚠

ward Can I confirm that you live in the [NAME] ward?If they don't know, ask for postcode, so the ward can be looked up here:

Base: 483
Levenshulme
16.8%
81
Burnage
16.6%
80
Longsight
15.7%
76
Gorton and Abbey Hey
14.7%
71
Denton South
13.5%
65
Denton North East
11.4%
55
Denton West
11.2%
54
Audenshaw
0.2%
1

eu16 Thinking back to the EU referendum in 2016, how did you vote in the referendum, or did you not vote?

Base: 483
Remain
29.2%
141
Did not vote
26.3%
127
Leave
23.2%
112
Can't remember
13.5%
65
Refused
7.9%
38

ge24_gortonanddenton Thinking back to the last UK General Election, held in July 2024, which party or candidate did you vote for, or did you not vote?

Base: 483
Labour - Andrew Gwynne
42.0%
203
Did not vote
23.6%
114
Refused
8.7%
42
Reform - Lee Moffitt
7.0%
34
Can't remember
7.0%
34
Conservative - Ruth Welsh
6.2%
30
Green - Amanda Gardner
4.1%
20
Liberal Democrats - John Reid
1.0%
5
Workers Party - Amir Burney
0.2%
1

ltv In the upcoming by-election on February 26th, on a scale of 0 - 10, where 0 is would not vote and 10 is certain to vote, how likely would you be to vote in this election?

Base: 483
10 - Certain to vote
61.1%
295
0 - Would not vote
12.2%
59
5
11.4%
55
8
4.8%
23
7
3.3%
16
6
2.5%
12
3
1.9%
9
9
1.9%
9
2
0.8%
4
4
0.2%
1

evi And if the by-election was held today, for which candidate would you vote?

Base: 424
UNDECIDED [DO NOT PROMPT]
26.9%
114
Labour - Angeliki Stogia [PROMPT]
24.5%
104
Reform UK - Matt Goodwin [PROMPT]
23.8%
101
Green Party - Hannah Spencer [PROMPT]
11.1%
47
REFUSED [DO NOT PROMPT]
5.2%
22
Conservative - Ruth Welsh [PROMPT]
3.5%
15
Another party [PROMPT - AND FOLLOW UP, WHICH PARTY?]
2.1%
9
Liberal Democrats - Jackie Pearcey [PROMPT]
1.7%
7
George Galloway's Workers’ Party - Candidate, Shahbaz Sarwar [PROMPT]
1.2%
5

evi_undecided Whilst you are undecided, is there a candidate/party that you are leaning towards the most?

Base: 114
UNDECIDED [DO NOT PROMPT]
70.2%
80
Labour - Angeliki Stogia [PROMPT]
11.4%
13
REFUSED [DO NOT PROMPT]
8.8%
10
Green Party - Hannah Spencer [PROMPT]
4.4%
5
Conservative - Ruth Welsh [PROMPT]
1.8%
2
Reform UK - Matt Goodwin [PROMPT]
1.8%
2
Liberal Democrats - Jackie Pearcey [PROMPT]
0.9%
1
Another party [PROMPT - AND FOLLOW UP, WHICH PARTY?]
0.9%
1

evi_second_choice And if you had to pick a party or candidate that would be your second choice, which party or candidate would you choose?

Base: 424
UNDECIDED [DO NOT PROMPT]
37.7%
160
REFUSED [DO NOT PROMPT]
15.3%
65
Green Party - Hannah Spencer [PROMPT]
15.1%
64
Labour - Angeliki Stogia [PROMPT]
9.9%
42
Conservative - Ruth Welsh [PROMPT]
7.5%
32
Liberal Democrats - Jackie Pearcey [PROMPT]
7.3%
31
George Galloway's Workers’ Party - Candidate, Shahbaz Sarwar [PROMPT]
2.4%
10
Another party [PROMPT - AND FOLLOW UP, WHICH PARTY?]
1.9%
8
Reform UK - Matt Goodwin [PROMPT]
1.4%
6
Social Democratic Party - Sebastian Moore [PROMPT]
0.7%
3
Advance UK - Nick Buckley [PROMPT]
0.5%
2
Libertarian Party - Dan Clarke [PROMPT]
0.2%
1

most_likely Regardless of the result you would like to see, who do you expect is most likely to win the by-election?

Base: 424
Labour - Angeliki Stogia [PROMPT]
34.2%
145
Reform UK - Matt Goodwin [PROMPT]
30.2%
128
Don't know [DO NOT PROMPT]
27.8%
118
Green Party - Hannah Spencer [PROMPT]
3.5%
15
Conservative - Ruth Welsh [PROMPT]
2.1%
9
Liberal Democrats - Jackie Pearcey [PROMPT]
1.2%
5
George Galloway's Workers’ Party - Candidate, Shahbaz Sarwar [PROMPT]
0.5%
2
Another party [PROMPT - AND FOLLOW UP, WHICH PARTY?]
0.5%
2

top_issue_1 top_issue - What is the top issue that will influence your voting decision in the by-election? Issue:

Base: 361
Issue:
100.0%
361

top_issue_2 top_issue - What is the top issue that will influence your voting decision in the by-election? Don't know [DO NOT PROMPT]

Base: 63
Don't know [DO NOT PROMPT]
100.0%
63

issue_coding_1 issue_coding - Environment/Climate change

Base: 17
Environment/Climate change
100.0%
17

issue_coding_2 issue_coding - Cost of living

Base: 74
Cost of living
100.0%
74

issue_coding_3 issue_coding - Health and the NHS

Base: 52
Health and the NHS
100.0%
52

issue_coding_4 issue_coding - The economy generally

Base: 30
The economy generally
100.0%
30

issue_coding_5 issue_coding - Housing

Base: 30
Housing
100.0%
30

issue_coding_6 issue_coding - Energy

Base: 9
Energy
100.0%
9

issue_coding_7 issue_coding - Crime

Base: 15
Crime
100.0%
15

issue_coding_8 issue_coding - Education

Base: 15
Education
100.0%
15

issue_coding_9 issue_coding - Defence

Base: 4
Defence
100.0%
4

issue_coding_10 issue_coding - Immigration

Base: 78
Immigration
100.0%
78

issue_coding_12 issue_coding - Transport

Base: 8
Transport
100.0%
8

issue_coding_11 issue_coding - Pensions

Base: 13
Pensions
100.0%
13

issue_coding_13 issue_coding - Jobs

Base: 8
Jobs
100.0%
8

issue_coding_14 issue_coding - Foreign Policy

Base: 8
Foreign Policy
100.0%
8

issue_coding_15 issue_coding - Welfare benefits

Base: 10
Welfare benefits
100.0%
10

issue_coding_16 issue_coding - Culture

Base: 6
Culture
100.0%
6

issue_coding_17 issue_coding - Other

Base: 105
Other
100.0%
105

issue_coding_19 issue_coding - Local issues and representation

Base: 34
Local issues and representation
100.0%
34

issue_coding_20 issue_coding - Lack of trust in politics or politicians

Base: 36
Lack of trust in politics or politicians
100.0%
36

issue_coding_21 issue_coding - Values, fairness, and the national interest

Base: 9
Values, fairness, and the national interest
100.0%
9

issue_coding_18 issue_coding - Don't know [DO NOT PROMPT]

Base: 78
Don't know [DO NOT PROMPT]
100.0%
78

q1 Which of the following statements is closest to your view?

Base: 483
Keir Starmer should not continue being prime minister [PROMPT]
53.6%
259
Don’t know [DO NOT PROMPT]
25.7%
124
Keir Starmer should continue being prime minister [PROMPT]
20.7%
100

q2 In your view, is the by-election:

Base: 483
A referendum on Keir Starmer’s leadership [PROMPT]
37.9%
183
Don’t know [DO NOT PROMPT]
35.4%
171
Not a referendum on Keir Starmer’s leadership [PROMPT]
26.7%
129

q3 To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with the following statement? "Britain is broken"

Base: 483
Strongly agree [PROMPT]
40.4%
195
Somewhat agree [PROMPT]
17.0%
82
Don’t know [DO NOT PROMPT]
14.3%
69
Strongly disagree [PROMPT]
11.4%
55
Somewhat disagree [PROMPT]
9.7%
47
Neither agree nor disagree [PROMPT]
7.2%
35

agecat_refused If respondents have refused to give exact age, please take from the dialler.

Base: 57
45-54
31.6%
18
35-44
24.6%
14
65-74
15.8%
9
25-34
12.3%
7
55-64
12.3%
7
18-24
1.8%
1
75+
1.8%
1

sex Please record sex.

Base: 483
Male
50.1%
242
Female
49.7%
240
Prefer not to say
0.2%
1

sex_quota_A_1 sex_quota_A - sex.a=Male

Base: 240
sex.a=Male
100.0%
240

sex_quota_A_2 sex_quota_A - sex.a=Female

Base: 242
sex.a=Female
100.0%
242

education What is your highest level of educational qualifications?

Base: 483
Degree, HNC, HND, RSA Higher Diploma, Professional qualifications (e.g. teaching, nursing, accountancy)
31.5%
152
[DO NOT PROMPT] Refused
16.1%
78
No Qualifications
14.1%
68
2+ A Levels, 4+ AS Levels, Level 3 NVQ qualification, ONC, OND
11.8%
57
5+ O Level Passes/CSEs (Grade 1)/GCSEs (Grades A*-C), 1 A Level/2-3 AS Levels/
10.8%
52
1-4 O Levels/CSE/GCSEs (any grades), Entry Level / Foundation / Level 1 NVQ qualification
8.5%
41
Other (vocational/Work-related Qualifications)
4.3%
21
Apprenticeship / Level 2 NVQ qualification
2.9%
14

emp1 Which of these activities best describes what you are doing at present?

Base: 483
Employed full-time (more than 30 hours plus per week)
30.8%
149
Retired
27.5%
133
Refused
13.7%
66
Employed in part-time job (30 or fewer hours per week)
8.7%
42
Self-employed
7.5%
36
Unable to work due to illness or disability
4.8%
23
Unemployed and actively seeking employment
3.1%
15
Unpaid family carer / homemaker
2.1%
10
Student
1.9%
9

income For demographic purposes could you tell me which of the following categories best describes your household income, including all benefits, but before tax is deducted?

Base: 47
Less than £20,000
29.8%
14
Prefer not to say/Don't know
29.8%
14
£20,000 - £39,999
27.7%
13
£40,000 or more
12.8%
6